Today is significant for reasons beyond the fact it's the 208th day of the year. (Not that you were counting, but hey someone has to.)
Phil Rosen reporting from Los Angeles, where people here and across the country will feel the repercussions of today's Fed move.
At 2 p.m. ET, analysts expect the central bank to announce a hefty, 75-basis-point rate hike for the second time this summer.
Then, markets, investors, and Americans will all be watching to hear what Fed Chair Powell has to say at the press conference.
With the interest rate decision taking center stage, I stopped by The Refresh from Insider to break down the other significant number investors have their eyes on this week.
Let's get started.
If this was forwarded to you, sign up here. Download Insider's app here.
1. The Fed's favorite recession signal is flashing a warning, even before the central bank makes its Wednesday rate-hike decision.
The bond market's three-month bill premium — the difference between the current rate on the three-month Treasury bill and the expectations for it in 18 months — is typically what the Fed looks to as an indicator of a recession.
Here's the kicker: This month, the spread has seen its largest monthly drop since data on it began in 1996.
And Powell has cited this data point before as a rationale for aggressive rate hikes.
If the indicator sinks any further, it'll invert like the two-year and 10-year yield curve — which is another recession signal that has been flashing regularly over the past few months.
Stocks are prepared for whatever happens today, though, because they've already priced in a recession and found their bottom, JPMorgan said.
"With the peak in Fed pricing likely behind us, the worst for risk markets and market volatility should also be behind us," Marko Kolanovic said in a Monday note.
"In all, while recession odds are increasing given weaker economic data, we believe that at least a mild recession is already in the price," he added. "We thus remain cautiously optimistic."
In other news:
2. US stock futures rise Wednesday, after investors were encouraged by better-than-feared earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. Here are the latest market moves.
3. On the docket: Meta, Boeing Co., and Equinor, all reporting. Plus, look out for the advance report on durable goods from the US Census Bureau later today.
4. These inflation-fighting stocks can weather the storm even as the Fed continues to raise interest rates to tame inflation, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank named 48 companies that are good bets in the market right now — and explained why the list of names has a bright future ahead.
5. Russia's natural gas cuts have sparked hoarding of liquefied natural gas that could drive prices up even further. Japan and South Korea are increasing LNG purchases on fears that European nations will do the same, traders told Bloomberg. Here's what you want to know.
6. Cathie Wood's favorite type of stocks still face significant challenges in staging a recovery, in Goldman Sachs' view. Unprofitable growth stocks may see more headwinds ahead, as they need to raise cash at depressed valuations, the bank's analysts noted. And that's not a good sign for Ark Invest, which made a name for itself by investing in innovative companies that weren't yet profitable.
7. Russia faces "economic oblivion" as Western sanctions continue to eat away at the warring nation's GDP. A new research report said Moscow has been publishing inaccurate economic data throughout the war, and that the economy in Russia is not nearly as resilient as it may seem. The exodus of 1,000 companies from the country has reversed nearly three decades' worth of foreign investment.
8. This retired math teacher is using a specific options trading strategy to profit in the bear market. He teaches others how to trade using options too — and shared the two key variables he applies on his contracts for optimal returns while mitigating risk.
9. RBC said the stock market bottom may have already passed, or that it could arrive very soon. The firm's top US stock strategist, Lori Calvasina, said the equity market recovery is in the works. Here's what investors should be buying right now.
10. Shopify shares plunged on Tuesday after the CEO admits to a "wrong" call about sustainable pandemic-driven growth of online shopping. The company also announced plans for company-wide layoffs. In CEO Tobi Lütke's words: "Ultimately, placing this bet was my call to make and I got this wrong."
Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out The Refresh from Insider, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. Listen here.
You're invited: Join us on Tuesday, Aug. 9 at noon ET for a virtual panel presented by Schneider Electric, examining the challenges and opportunities of sustainability transformation. Sign up here.
Curated by Phil Rosen in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email [email protected] or tweet @philrosenn).
Edited by Jason Ma in New York and Hallam Bullock (@hallam_bullock) in London.